NATO prepared for north Kosovo "domino effect"

NATO prepared for north Kosovo "domino effect"Tue Jan 30, 2007 11:06 AM ET
By Matt Robinson

PRISTINA, Serbia (Reuters) - NATO is prepared for the worst-case scenario of regional violence in the event Serbs in north Kosovo revolt over an imminent decision on the fate of the province, the NATO commander there said on Tuesday.
The 90-percent ethnic Albanian majority in Kosovo is expected to win some form of independence from Serbia this year.
German Lieutenant-General Roland Kather echoed concerns expressed by analysts that Serbs in the north could revolt, triggering a revival of conflicts in Serbia's Presevo Valley to the east and Macedonia to the south, where Albanians fought government forces in 2001 for greater rights.
"If something happens in the north we will have something like a domino effect," Kather told Reuters. "We'll have the same problems in the Presevo Valley."
He said NATO was monitoring developments in the border regions. Analysts say Albanians there might see a Serb bid to partition Kosovo as cause to resume insurgencies put down by Western diplomacy. Some have ambitions to join a Kosovo state.
U.N. envoy Martti Ahtisaari is due to present his proposal on the fate of Serbia's breakaway province in Belgrade and Pristina on Friday. It comes almost eight years since the United Nations took control of the territory after a NATO air war.
It will in effect say 'Yes' to the Albanian majority's demand for independence from Serbia, but provide the 100,000 remaining Serbs with a degree of autonomy likely to arouse Albanian suspicion of further interference from Belgrade.
Extremists on both sides could find cause to revolt.
Kather said contingency plans for dealing with mass violence and a refugee exodus were in place, but he expected neither. Isolated acts of violence were more likely. Though quiet, he said, "the situation is not stable and is unpredictable."
Kather, 57, said the north, where Serbs form the majority and are threatening their own secession, would have his "special attention." The NATO-led Kosovo force (KFOR) reopened its northern base last year, "to have a better presence ... for whatever might come up," he said.
Kosovo has been run by the United Nations since 1999, when NATO bombs drove out Serb forces accused of killing Albanian civilians in a two-year counter-insurgency war. The conflicts in Macedonia and the Presevo Valley were widely seen as a spillover, as the Albanian minorities pushed for greater rights.
HIGH EXPECTATIONS
Kather said the situation in Macedonia, where the former guerrillas are seething at being frozen out of government for the first time since the war, was increasingly difficult.
"We watch very closely what is going on in particular with the Albanian population in the northern part of the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. There are links with Kosovo that have always been. So we monitor the situation but we don't have any indicators that there will be any violence."
KFOR operations would focus on "the center and the eastern parts of Kosovo where we have these small, medium and large (Serb) enclaves", he said.
Kather heads 16,500 soldiers in Kosovo from 36 nations, down from 50,000 in 1999 when NATO deployed after bombing for 78 days to drive out forces under late strongman Slobodan Milosevic.
Kosovo's future was thrust back into the spotlight in 2004 when Albanian mobs overran NATO-guarded Serb enclaves and burned hundreds of homes and churches.
KFOR has revamped its command and control structure and got rid of most of the restrictions imposed by contributing nations, blamed for its slow and ineffective response to the violence.
After a year of fruitless Serb-Albanian talks, Ahtisaari has drafted his blueprint, which diplomats say could be voted on at the U.N. Security Council toward the middle of the year.
The West favors a resolution that would remove Serbian sovereignty over Kosovo, allow it to declare independence and open the way to recognition by individual states, with the United States among the first in line.
But Russia is skeptical, according to diplomats, and has asked for a delay until Serbia forms a new government after an inconclusive general election in January.
Kather urged a quick decision. "To do my job, just for the security reasons, we need that decision as soon as possible, because the expectations are high," he said.


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