Croat Social Democrats Shaken by Leader’s Illness

08 02 2007 While party says it’s business as usual, leadership struggle is likely after this year’s elections.By Goran Jungvirth in Zagreb (Balkan Insight, 8 Feb 07)
Croatia’s principal opposition party has been shaken by the news that its popular longstanding leader is far more ill than had been thought.The extent of the illness of the leader of the Social Democratic Party, SDP, Ivica Racan, became clear this week, when doctors in Munich who had performed a biopsy found a cancerous tumour in his shoulder was secondary. When Racan, 64, first announced his cancer diagnosis on February 1, party officials had claimed the illness meant only a temporary break in his long tenure as SDP leader. In light of the latest development, that looks unlikely. And while talk of a new leader remains taboo, most political observers believe the current display of unity can be no more than a temporary measure. While no one expects factional splits within the party to show until after parliamentary elections due by the end of the year, it is clear the party, heavily reliant on Racan’s strong leadership, cannot avoid reform for much longer. The post of SDP leader is crucial in Croatia. The centre-left party, which emerged from the old Yugoslav League of Communists, is roughly equal to the ruling Croatian Democratic Union, HDZ, in size, running neck and neck with the HDZ in the polls. It may well form the next government, which could preside over Croatia’s hoped-for entry into the European Union at the end of the decade. For now, the party is at pains to maintain an appearance of outward calm. Deputy president Zeljka Antunovic on February 2 said it was still “business as usual”. She refused even to discuss the possibility of a new leader other than to say, “The party’s statute has envisaged such a situation and can deal with it appropriately.” The SDP secretary Igor Dragovan was even more bullish. “Racan will come back at the top of the party,” he said, refusing to discuss the succession. “Racan will return.” Racan was instrumental in transforming the party into a modern social democratic force and leading it through the republic’s first free parliamentary elections in 1990 and the declaration of independence in 1991. The war-torn 1990s saw him at the helm of the newly formed SDP through a rough transitional period. After managing to shake off its identification with the now unpopular Yugoslav communist regime, he made it the second strongest party in the new pluralist system. However, others see Racan’s expected exit as an opportunity to modernise a party that is starting to look old-fashioned. “No one wants to run out with some predictions about Racan’s successor because the early roosters always get killed first,” one SDP source told Balkan Insight. “But we in the younger generation hope this situation can bring an end to the practice in which only one leader is visible at state level and can only be removed by natural causes,” added the same source. The young official’s complaint refers to the fact that the SDP suffers from a common feature of Croatia’s political system - the tendency of parties to be dominated by and over-dependent on a single strongman. Branko Caratan, a politics professor in Zagreb and member of the SDP council, said Racan’s historic success as party boss made his replacement hard to contemplate. “Time is needed for parties to get used to replacing leaders through regular elections,” he said. “As a young democracy, Croatia lags behind when it comes to this.”But sources in the SDP told Balkan Insight over the last few days that many are now impatient to overturn this uncritical approach to the party’s old guard.“Older established members want to preserve the old order and their positions but this new situation may open up room to democratise the party,” said one source.Independent political analyst Davor Gjenero said the failure to make changes earlier had left the SDP “in a serious crisis” because there were no obvious candidates to take Racan’s place. He blamed Racan for missing the chance to change the party and for centralising power and keeping it in his own hands. “For years Racan has … only included ‘yes-men’ [at the top] to avoid threatening his position,” he said.Critics like Gjenero say the SDP may pay a price for a failure of nerve that has left the HDZ at an advantage. The main centre-right party shook up its ethos and its leadership after its authoritarian leader and founder, Croatia’s former president, Franjo Tudjman, died in 1999.The HDZ used its time in opposition to allow a power struggle between the rival factions to run its course; this also brought to the surface a wider number of recognisable party leaders.And although rivalry within the SDP does not compare to the dramatic leadership battle played out by the HDZ in 2000, it nevertheless exists.“Elections for the position of deputy president in 2004 forebode serious competition,” said Caratan, referring to the two-round race between Antunovic and Zagreb mayor Milan Bandic.Balkan Insight’s source inside the SDP expects a push from younger members, with the party establishment vulnerable after the loss of their champion, Racan. “The old structure will be shaken, since they rely on Racan for position, not themselves,” he said. But while some Social Democrats are impatient for change, all are aware of how damaging a power struggle would be to the party’s election chances. “There won’t be conflict between the factions inside the SDP [before then],” said Caratan.“Its leaders wouldn’t want to be blamed for a possible election defeat as a result of a loss of support among voters, which this [struggle] could provoke.” Gjenero agrees, saying the SDP won’t consider changing its leadership structure until after the parliamentary elections. The party will keep its internal factioning below the surface until after the election, he believes, because “they have political experience”.“Who then takes over will depend on the election result, and ability to rally all fractions inside the party,” said Gjenaro. Goran Jungvirth is BIRN’s Croatia project coordinator. Balkan Insight is BIRN’s online publication.